Landslide Susceptibility Analysis using Artificial Neural Networks for Chalus County, Iran
Morteza Ebadati1; Feng-Hu Sun2; Yu Lee3; Meysam Jabbari Moghadam4
- Departmen of Geographic Information Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
- Departmen of Geographic Information Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
- Departmen of Geographic Information Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China
- Faculty of Basic Science, Maragheh University of Technology, Maragheh 5518183111, Iran
Landslides are among the most critical natural hazards, causing significant environmental and economic damage. This study focuses on landslide susceptibility analysis in Chalus County, Iran, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict high-risk areas. A dataset of 77 recorded historical landslides was compiled through field surveys, remote sensing, and satellite imagery analysis. Various conditioning factors, including elevation, geology, slope angle, rainfall, temperature, aspect, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index), weathering, distance to cities, distance to landslides, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and distance to faults, were integrated into a GIS-based modeling framework. The ANN model was trained using a dataset divided into training and validation subsets, ensuring robust predictive performance. The results demonstrated that ANNs effectively identify landslide-prone regions, with high accuracy in distinguishing between stable and unstable areas. The susceptibility map produced highlights that northern and mountainous regions of Chalus County are highly vulnerable to landslides, primarily due to steep slopes, heavy precipitation, and geological instability. Model validation using statistical accuracy measures, including the Area Under the Curve (AUC), precision, and recall, confirmed the reliability of the predictions. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for urban planners, geologists, and policymakers in risk assessment and land-use planning. Implementing these results can support early warning systems and mitigation strategies to minimize landslide-related hazards in the region. Future research should explore hybrid AI models and additional geospatial datasets to enhance predictive capabilities further.
Landslide susceptibility, Artificial intelligence, Neural networks, Machine learning, ArcGIS
The data supporting the findings of this study are available within article. No publicly archived dataset was generated.
This research received no external funding.
- ANN predicts landslide susceptibility accurately
- High risk in northern mountainous areas
- GIS mapping supports planning and mitigation
- Abramson L.W., Lee T.S., Sharma S., Boyce G.M. (2001). Slope stability and stabilization methods. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, USA.
- Ado M., Amitab K., Maji A.K., Jasińska E., Gono R., Leonowicz Z., Jasiński M. (2022). Landslide susceptibility mapping using machine learning: A literature survey. Remote Sensing, 14(13), 3029. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14133029.
- Aghanabati A. (2012). Geology of Iran. Geological Survey of Iran press, Tehran, Iran.
- Amini Hosseini K., Ghayamghamian M.R. (2012). A survey of challenges in reducing the impact of geological hazards associated with earthquakes in Iran. Natural Hazards, 62, 901-926. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0123-7.
- Arabameri A., Saha S., Roy J., Chen W., Blaschke T., Bui D.T. (2020). Landslide susceptibility evaluation and management using different machine learning methods in the Gallicash River Watershed, Iran. Remote Sensing, 12(3), 475. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12030475.
- Azarafza M., Ghazifard A., Akgün H., Asghari-Kaljahi E. (2018). Landslide susceptibility assessment of South Pars Special Zone, southwest Iran. Environmental Earth Sciences, 77, 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7978-1.
- Ba Q., Chen Y., Deng S., Wu Q., Yang J., Zhang J. (2017). An improved information value model based on gray clustering for landslide susceptibility mapping. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 6(1), 18. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi6010018.
- Baumann V., Bonadonna C., Cuomo S., Moscariello M., Manzella I. (2018). Slope stability models for rainfall-induced lahars during long-lasting eruptions. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 359, 78-94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.06.018.
- Bre F., Gimenez J.M., Fachinotti V.D. (2018). Prediction of wind pressure coefficients on building surfaces using artificial neural networks. Energy and Buildings, 158, 1429-1441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.11.045.
- Cemiloglu A., Zhu L., Mohammednour A.B., Azarafza M., Nanehkaran Y.A. (2023). Landslide susceptibility assessment for Maragheh County, Iran, using the logistic regression algorithm. Land, 12(7), 1397. https://doi.org/10.3390/land12071397.
- Chen X., Chen W. (2021). GIS-based landslide susceptibility assessment using optimized hybrid machine learning methods. Catena, 196, 104833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104833.
- Dahal R.K., Hasegawa S., Nonomura A., Yamanaka M., Masuda T., Nishino K. (2008). GIS-based weights-of-evidence modelling of rainfall-induced landslides in small catchments for landslide susceptibility mapping. Environmental Geology, 54, 311-324. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00254-007-0818-3.
- Dai F.C., Lee C.F., Ngai Y.Y. (2002). Landslide risk assessment and management: an overview. Engineering Geology, 64(1), 65-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(01)00093-X.
- Davidson J., Hassanzadeh J., Berzins R., Stockli D.F., Bashukooh B., Turrin B., Pandamouz A. (2004). The geology of Damavand volcano, Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. Geological Society of America Bulletin, 116(1-2), 16-29. https://doi.org/10.1130/B25344.1.
- Duncan J.M., Wright S.G., Brandon T.L. (2014). Soil strength and slope stability. John Wiley & Sons, New Jersey, USA.
- Ehteshami-Moinabadi M. (2022). Properties of fault zones and their influences on rainfall-induced landslides, examples from Alborz and Zagros ranges. Environmental Earth Sciences, 81(5), 168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10283-2.
- Ehteshami-Moinabadi M., Nasiri S. (2019). Geometrical and structural setting of landslide dams of the Central Alborz: a link between earthquakes and landslide damming. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 78, 69-88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10064-017-1021-8.
- Erener A., Düzgün H.S.B. (2012). Landslide susceptibility assessment: what are the effects of mapping unit and mapping method?. Environmental Earth Sciences, 66, 859-877. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-011-1297-0.
- Ermini L., Catani F., Casagli N. (2005). Artificial neural networks applied to landslide susceptibility assessment. Geomorphology, 66(1-4), 327-343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.09.025.
- Geological Survey of Iran, GSI (2009). Geological map and data for Chalus County within 1:100,000 and 1:250,000 scales. Geological Survey of Iran press, maps unit, Tehran, Iran.
- Gigović L., Drobnjak S., Pamučar D. (2019). The application of the hybrid GIS spatial multi-criteria decision analysis best–worst methodology for landslide susceptibility mapping. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 8(2), 79. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8020079.
- Habibzadeh F., Habibzadeh P., Yadollahie M. (2016). On determining the most appropriate test cut-off value: the case of tests with continuous results. Biochemia Medica, 26(3), 297-307. https://doi.org/10.11613/BM.2016.034.
- Huang F., Chen J., Liu W., Huang J., Hong H., Chen W. (2022). Regional rainfall-induced landslide hazard warning based on landslide susceptibility mapping and a critical rainfall threshold. Geomorphology, 408, 108236. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108236.
- Huang Y., Zhao L. (2018). Review on landslide susceptibility mapping using support vector machines. Catena, 165, 520-529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2018.03.003.
- Huqqani I.A., Tay L.T., Mohamad-Saleh J. (2022). Assessment of landslide susceptibility mapping using artificial bee colony algorithm based on different normalizations and dimension reduction techniques. Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, 47(6), 7243-7260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-021-06013-8.
- Jia G., Tian Y., Liu Y., Zhang Y. (2008). A static and dynamic factors-coupled forecasting model of regional rainfall-induced landslides: A case study of Shenzhen. Science in China Series E: Technological Sciences, 51(Suppl 2), 164-175. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11431-008-6013-2.
- Kardavani P., Rad A.F., Kavoosi B. (2014). Mazandaran province Geotourism. Journal of Tourism Hospitality Research, 3(1), 23-47.
- Kavzoglu T., Colkesen I., Sahin E.K. (2019). Machine learning techniques in landslide susceptibility mapping: a survey and a case study. In: Landslides: Theory, practice and modelling, pp. 283-301. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77377-3_13.
- Lee D.H., Kim Y.T., Lee S.R. (2020). Shallow landslide susceptibility models based on artificial neural networks considering the factor selection method and various non-linear activation functions. Remote Sensing, 12(7), 1194. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12071194.
- Marjanović M., Kovačević M., Bajat B., Voženílek V. (2011). Landslide susceptibility assessment using SVM machine learning algorithm. Engineering Geology, 123(3), 225-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2011.09.006.
- Merghadi A., Yunus A.P., Dou J., Whiteley J., Pham B.T., Bui D.T., Abderrahmane B. (2020). Machine learning methods for landslide susceptibility studies: A comparative overview of algorithm performance. Earth-Science Reviews, 207, 103225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103225.
- Nanehkaran Y.A., Chen B., Cemiloglu A., Chen J., Anwar S., Azarafza M., Derakhshani R. (2023). Riverside landslide susceptibility overview: leveraging artificial neural networks and machine learning in accordance with the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals. Water, 15(15), 2707. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15152707.
- Nanehkaran Y.A., Licai Z., Chen J., Azarafza M., Yimin M. (2022). Application of artificial neural networks and geographic information system to provide hazard susceptibility maps for rockfall failures. Environmental Earth Sciences, 81(19), 475. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10603-6.
- Nanehkaran Y.A., Mao Y., Azarafza M., Kockar M.K., Zhu H.H. (2021). Fuzzy-based multiple decision method for landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment: A case study of Tabriz, Iran. Geomechanics and Engineering, 24(5), 407-418. https://doi.org/10.12989/gae.2021.24.5.407.
- Ngo P.T.T., Panahi M., Khosravi K., Ghorbanzadeh O., Kariminejad N., Cerda A., Lee S. (2021). Evaluation of deep learning algorithms for national scale landslide susceptibility mapping of Iran. Geoscience Frontiers, 12(2), 505-519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2020.06.013.
- Nikoobakht S., Azarafza M., Akgün H., Derakhshani R. (2022). Landslide susceptibility assessment by using convolutional neural network. Applied Sciences, 12(12), 5992. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12125992.
- Pham B.T., Pradhan B., Bui D.T., Prakash I., Dholakia M.B. (2016). A comparative study of different machine learning methods for landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of Uttarakhand area (India). Environmental Modelling & Software, 84, 240-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.07.005.
- Pourghasemi H.R., Jirandeh A.G., Pradhan B., Xu C., Gokceoglu C. (2013). Landslide susceptibility mapping using support vector machine and GIS at the Golestan Province, Iran. Journal of Earth System Science, 122, 349-369. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-013-0282-2.
- Pourghasemi H.R., Mohammady M., Pradhan B. (2012). Landslide susceptibility mapping using index of entropy and conditional probability models in GIS: Safarood Basin, Iran. Catena, 97, 71-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2012.05.005.
- Pourghasemi H.R., Moradi H.R., Aghda, S.M.F., Gokceoglu C., Pradhan B. (2014). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping with probabilistic likelihood ratio and spatial multi-criteria evaluation models (North of Tehran, Iran). Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 7, 1857-1878. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0825-x.
- Rajabi A.M., Rajaee T., Fallah Tafti A. (2018). Flood zoning of Chalus basin using hydrologic model of HEC-RAS and Geographic Information System. Scientific Quarterly Journal of Iranian Association of Engineering Geology, 11(2), 45-60.
- Reichenbach P., Rossi M., Malamud B.D., Mihir M., Guzzetti F. (2018). A review of statistically-based landslide susceptibility models. Earth-Science Reviews, 180, 60-91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.03.001.
- Roccati A., Paliaga G., Luino F., Faccini F., Turconi L. (2021). GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for land use planning and risk assessment. Land, 10(2), 162. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10020162.
- Rogers J.D., Chung J.W. (2016). Mapping earthflows and earthflow complexes using topographic indicators. Engineering Geology, 208, 206-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2016.04.025.
- Salunkhe D.P., Bartakke R.N., Chvan G., Kothavale P.R., Digvijay P. (2017). An overview on methods for slope stability analysis. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology, 6(03), 2278-0181.
- Sim K.B.S., Lee M.L., Wong S.Y. (2022). A review of landslide acceptable risk and tolerable risk. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 9, 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-022-00205-6.
- Soleimani B., Adabi M., Dehyadegari E. (2020). Sedimentary characteristics, sequence stratigraphy and geochemistry of the Tiz Kuh Formation in the Pol-e-Zoghal section (South of Chalus). Journal of Stratigraphy and Sedimentology Researches, 36(2), 23-50. https://doi.org/10.22108/jssr.2020.120790.1139.
- Sorbi A., Farrokhnia A. (2018). Landslide Hazard Evaluation And Zonation Of Karaj-Chalus Road. International Journal of Geography and Geology, 7(2), 35-44. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.10.2018.72.35.44.
- Thirugnanam H., Uhlemann S., Reghunadh R., Ramesh M.V., Rangan V.P. (2022). Review of landslide monitoring techniques with IoT integration opportunities. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 15, 5317-5338. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2022.3183684.
- U.S. Geological Survey, USGS (2023). Landsat 8 (TM) and Landsat 7 (ETM+) satellite images. Retrieved from https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/.
- Wei Z., Yin G., Wang J.G., Wan L., Jin L. (2012). Stability analysis and supporting system design of a high-steep cut soil slope on an ancient landslide during highway construction of Tehran–Chalus. Environmental Earth Sciences, 67, 1651-1662. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-012-1606-2.
- Yalçinkaya M., Bayrak T. (2005). Comparison of static, kinematic and dynamic geodetic deformation models for Kutlugün landslide in northeastern Turkey. Natural Hazards, 34, 91-110. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-1967-2.
- Yang C., Liu L.L., Huang F., Huang L., Wang X.M. (2023). Machine learning-based landslide susceptibility assessment with optimized ratio of landslide to non-landslide samples. Gondwana Research, 123, 198-216. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2022.05.012.
- Yong C., Jinlong D., Fei G., Bin T., Tao Z., Hao F., Qinghua Z. (2022). Review of landslide susceptibility assessment based on knowledge mapping. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 36(9), 2399-2417.
- Youssef, A.M., Pourghasemi H.R. (2021). Landslide susceptibility mapping using machine learning algorithms and comparison of their performance at Abha Basin, Asir Region, Saudi Arabia. Geoscience Frontiers, 12(2), 639-655. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2020.05.010.
- Zabihi M., Pourghasemi H.R., Motevalli A., Zakeri M.A. (2019). Gully erosion modeling using GIS-based data mining techniques in Northern Iran: a comparison between boosted regression tree and multivariate adaptive regression spline. In: Natural hazards GIS-based spatial modeling using data mining techniques, pp. 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-73383-8_1.
- Zêzere J.L. (2002). Landslide susceptibility assessment considering landslide typology. A case study in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2(1/2), 73-82. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2-73-2002.
- Zhou X., Qian Q., Cheng H., Zhang H. (2015). Stability analysis of two-dimensional landslides subjected to seismic loads. Acta Mechanica Solida Sinica, 28(3), 262-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0894-9166(15)30013-6.